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Demand estimation models

Demand estimation models

We develop models to estimate the demand level of multiple markets, ranging from utilities sectors (electricity, natural gas, telecommunications, and sanitation) to mass consumption (beer, soft drinks, etc.). For these estimations, we employ different econometric techniques and mathematical models, in accordance with the corresponding market characteristics.

The estimates require data collected through surveys and interviews designed by our team, secondary information provided by public and private institutions, as well as international benchmarks.

Experiencias

Estimation of load to be handled by the Matarani Port

We estimated the containerized and non-containerized load that would be handled by the Matarani Port in the 2014-2019 period. The analysis included the estimation of total load by product type and trade flow.  

 

Analysis of the Peruvian electricity market and forecast of indicators for the 2013-2029 period

APOYO Consultoria developed a thorough assessment of the Peruvian electricity market and of the main economic indicators used in the forecasts of electricity prices.  The analysis also included the projection of costs for the 2013-2029 period. The analysis, carried out using the Perseo mathematical model, considered different demand growth scenarios.

Demand estimation for Road Network N°4

The key indicators for estimating the revenues to be generated by this road network concession – from Pativilca (Lima) to Trujillo (La Libertad) - were identified. Traffic growth was forecasted with the economic growth in the area of influence. Also, potential project risks were identified.

Estimación del mercado potencial de educación superior

Se analizó el mercado de servicios de educación superior universitaria y técnica en el Perú. Sobre la base de este análisis, se determinó el mercado potencial de los productos de la Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola (USIL) y se evaluó su plan de expansión, desde el punto de vista financiero.

Estimation of the beverage market in Peru

The size of the informal alcoholic beverage market was determined at a national level through a residual supply model, using both primary and secondary information as inputs. This model takes into account alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as formal and informal markets. The beverages under study included beer, wine, pisco, rum, soda, water, juice, among others.


 

Estimating the demand for natural gas from Camisea for electricity generation (2010-2033)
As requested by a natural gas company, the demand for Camisea’s natural gas destined for electricity generation (main category of natural gas consumption in Peru) was estimated for the 2010-2033 period. This was done as a part of a strategic planning effort for the energy sector. The demand for electricity at a national level was estimated with econometric models and through the analysis of the investment portfolio that could potentially drive demand increases. 

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