Demand estimation models

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We develop models to estimate the demand level of multiple markets, ranging from utilities sectors (electricity, natural gas, telecommunications, and sanitation) to mass consumption (beer, soft drinks, etc.). For these estimations, we employ different econometric techniques and mathematical models, in accordance with the corresponding market characteristics.

The estimates require data collected through surveys and interviews designed by our team, secondary information provided by public and private institutions, as well as international benchmarks.

Experiencias

Estimation of load to be handled by the Matarani Port

We estimated the containerized and non-containerized load that would be handled by the Matarani Port in the 2014-2019 period. The analysis included the estimation of total load by product type and trade flow.

Analysis of the Peruvian electricity market and forecast of indicators for the 2013-2029 period

APOYO Consultoria developed a thorough assessment of the Peruvian electricity market and of the main economic indicators used in the forecasts of electricity prices. The analysis also included the projection of costs for the 2013-2029 period. The analysis, carried out using the Perseo mathematical model, considered different demand growth scenarios.

Demand estimation for Road Network N°4

The key indicators for estimating the revenues to be generated by this road network concession – from Pativilca (Lima) to Trujillo (La Libertad) - were identified. Traffic growth was forecasted with the economic growth in the area of influence. Also, potential project risks were identified.

Estimación del mercado potencial de educación superior

Se analizó el mercado de servicios de educación superior universitaria y técnica en el Perú. Sobre la base de este análisis, se determinó el mercado potencial de los productos de la Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola (USIL) y se evaluó su plan de expansión, desde el punto de vista financiero.

Estimation of the beverage market in Peru

The size of the informal alcoholic beverage market was determined at a national level through a residual supply model, using both primary and secondary information as inputs. This model takes into account alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as formal and informal markets. The beverages under study included beer, wine, pisco, rum, soda, water, juice, among others.

Estimating the demand for natural gas from Camisea for electricity generation (2010-2033)
As requested by a natural gas company, the demand for Camisea’s natural gas destined for electricity generation (main category of natural gas consumption in Peru) was estimated for the 2010-2033 period. This was done as a part of a strategic planning effort for the energy sector. The demand for electricity at a national level was estimated with econometric models and through the analysis of the investment portfolio that could potentially drive demand increases.

Experts

Geoffrey Cannock

He has extensive experience in infrastructure sectors, natural resources, agriculture, regulation, and public policies. Prior to this position, he was an economist at the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in Washington, D.C.; Manager of the Competition & Regulation and the Telecommunications business units of APOYO Consultoria between 1998-2003; General Manager and Economic Studies Manager of the Peruvian telecommunications regulator (Osiptel); and Vice-President of the Free Competition Commission at the National Institute for the Defense of Free Competition and the Protection of Intellectual Property.

He is an economist from Universidad del Pacífico with a Ph.D. degree in Applied Economics from Oklahoma State University.

Geoffrey leads the Economic Consulting division of APOYO Consultoria since 2008.

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Hugo Santa María

He is Partner of the area of Economic Studies and of APOYO Consultoría and leads the Business Advisory Service (SAE), the leading business and economic analysis service in the Peruvian market. He is director of Interbank and Colegios Peruanos and Sociedad Agrícola Virú. He is also a member of the advisory council of Edyce-Chile corporation and of the advisory council of the cultural association La Tarumba. He writes in financial newspapers from Peru and abroad.

He holds a Ph. D. and a master in Economics from Washington University and a degree in Economics from Universidad Pacifico.

At APOYO Consultoría since 1997.

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Javier Tabata

Has wide expertise in business consulting advising clients in more than 20 countries. His main areas of expertise are strategic planning, growth strategies, mergers and integration, operational restructuring and organizational designs. Previously, he was Principal at SAP Latin America and Senior Manager at A.T. Kearney (Madrid), for six years.
He holds a master’s degree in Business Administration from Kenan-Flager Business School, University of North Carolina, and a bachelor’s degree in Industrial Engineering from Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru. He also attended specialization courses at MIT and Kellogg.

In APOYO Consultoria since 2009.

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